Why Gold is one of the most value-preserving investment products? 为什么黄金是最保值的投资产品之一?

Updated: Jul 1

【Author Profile】


Vincent van Wijgerden is Sr. Tax Consultant and co-founder of GVN International Tax Services.


He has a degree in Tax Law (with focus on International Tax Law) from the University of Maastricht and a Masters degree in European Law from Leiden University. He has over 10 years of work experience in the field of taxation.


Vincent started his career working for thede Belastingdienst(Dutch Tax Authorities). Subsequently he worked forKPMG Meijburgas expatriate tax consultant and forVan der Bend Tax consultantsas expatriate and company tax consultant.


In addition to his work at GVN International Tax Services, Vincent is also lecturer in (International)Tax Law at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. He has co-authored a book containing selected texts of international tax treaties for expatriate tax consultants.


【作者介绍】 Vincent Van Wijgerden - 荷兰国际税务服务公司的高级税务顾问 他在马斯特里赫特大学学习(国际)税法,在莱顿大学学习欧洲法律,拥有逾10年税法经验。 Vincent在国税局开始了他的职业生涯, 随后,他在毕马威担任外籍人士的税务顾问,Vincent也在鹿特丹Erasmus大学教授国内和国际税法。 他在为雇主申请和应用30%税务计划提供咨询方面拥有丰富经验,并就跨境劳工、裁员支付和养老金的工资税和所得税方面向雇主和个人提供咨询




Intro and context


引言和背景

The Western stock markets are plunging as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus might have been the needle that popped the "everything bubble". A black swan! The collapse is long overdue. Monetary policies and low/zero/negative interest rates by Central Banks have made false prices everywhere. Stock markets had been levitating in euphoria for too long. There had just been more of the same since the 2008 crisis. But the longer they keep the system alive by kicking the can down the road, the more the pendulum will come back with a vengeance. Now we will see how the next stages of this collapse are unfolding as the Fed and the ECB have just opened up the monetary floodgates.


由于Covid-19新冠肺炎大流行,西方股市正在暴跌。该病毒可能是戳破“一切泡沫”的针头。典型的黑天鹅效应!崩溃是早就该来了。中央银行的货币政策和低/零/负利率使到处都是虚假的价格。股市兴高采烈已经太久了。自2008年危机以来,情况有所不同。 但是他们通过逃避拖延使系统保持活力的时间越长,摆锤就会越有报仇性地回来。 现在我们将看到随着美联储和欧洲央行刚刚打开货币闸门,这种崩溃的下一阶段将如何展开。


But do not panic! On the long run, gold is the perfect diversification tool to protect the value of your portfolio in case of such events like a stock market crash. But not only. Gold is the perfect way of hedging other asset classes. Especially through times of uncertainty and aggravated risk.


但是不要惊慌!从长远来看,黄金是一种完美的多元化工具,可以在股市崩盘等情况下保护您的投资组合的价值。 但不仅如此。 黄金是对冲其他资产类别的理想方式。 特别是在不确定性和高风险时期。


Yes, the price of gold has been going down since the beginning of the crash but make no mistake here. Gold in euros has peaked at €1561 on February 24th and dropped at €1301 on March 16th (-19.9%). Investors who are exposed on the stock markets have to sell liquid assets like gold to meet margin calls and are hunting for cash to cover market losses. This is a paper gold sell off by the weak hands mainly! Wait for the dust to settle and strong hands will have good entry point to initiate a long term physical gold position. From €1301 on March 16th, gold has peaked at €1502 on March 24th (+15,4%).


是的,自崩溃开始以来,黄金价格一直在下跌,但请不要误解。 欧元黄金价格在2月24日达到最高峰1561欧元,在3月16日下降到1301欧元(-19.9%)。 暴露在股市中的投资者必须出售黄金之类的流动资产以满足追加保证金的要求,并在寻求现金以弥补市场损失。这主要是纸黄金被弱手抛售!等待尘埃落定,强手将有很好的切入点,开始建立长期的实物黄金仓位。 从3月16日的1301欧元起,黄金在3月24日达到最高价1502欧元(+ 15.4%)。



The VIX (fear index) is still high. It means that the market remains uncertain. Thus, yes, gold can drop more on short-term. The strong hands will wait for the dust to settle before going back in and buy some more. For they will take advantage of this opportunity that might be the last at these price levels.


VIX(恐惧指数)仍然很高。这意味着实体仍然不确定。因此,是的,黄金短期内可能会下跌更多。 强手将等待尘埃落定,然后再购买一些。 因为他们将利用这个机会,这可能是这些价格水平的最后机会。


The physical market remains strong, the demand is growing. We will observe more and more disconnection between paper and physical markets. Some bullion dealers are reporting higher premiums and delayed order fulfilment already. 


实物市场保持强劲,需求正在增长。我们将观察到越来越多的纸张和实物市场之间的脱节。 一些金银交易商已经报告了更高的保费和已经延迟的订单履行。


Definitely gold is an asset to own in your long term portfolio. That is for sure! You can use the lockdown to prepare your ammunitions and be ready to fire up when windows of opportunity occur. 


黄金绝对是您长期投资组合中的资产。 那是肯定的! 您可以使用锁定来准备弹药,并准备在机会窗口出现时发射。


Why Gold in the first place?

为什么是黄金?


Gold is a real asset. It has an intrinsic value due to its substance and properties. Like oil or real estate for instance. Real assets provide portfolio diversification, as they often move in opposite directions to financial assets like stocks. Yes you will have storage fees to pay but you will be happy to do so for this is a cheap price for enjoying safety and peace of mind. 


黄金是一种真正的资产。 由于其实质和特性,它具有内在价值。 例如石油或房地产。 实物资产提供投资组合多元化,因为它们通常跟股票等金融资产向相反的方向发展。 是的,您需要支付仓储费,但是您会很乐意这样做,因为这是享受安全与省心的便宜价格。


Gold is a safe haven. A safe haven protects investors against a possible catastrophe. That's why many investors buy gold during a financial crisis. They seek protection against an economic collapse. As a result of extreme economic uncertainty, gold prices went from $869.75 in 2008 to a record high of $1,920 in September 2011.


黄金是避风港。 安全港可保护投资者免遭可能的灾难。 这就是为什么许多投资者在金融危机期间购买黄金的原因。他们寻求保护以防止经济崩溃。由于极端的经济不确定性,黄金价格从2008年的869.75美元升至2011年9月的记录高点1,920美元。


Gold is a hedge against inflation. Inflation is often understood as being the rise of the prices of goods and services over time. However, this is actually the symptom of inflation. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Now we can say currency supply because all the currencies in the world today are fiat and there is no sound paper money anymore. Only fiat currencies! Backed by nothing and that can be printed out of thin air.


黄金是对冲通胀的避险工具。通货膨胀通常被理解为商品和服务价格随时间的上涨。然而,这实际上是通货膨胀的症状。通货膨胀是货币供应量的扩大。现在我们可以说货币供应量是因为当今世界上所有货币都是法定货币,并且不再有健全的纸币。 只有法定货币!没有任何支持,可以凭空打印。


This incredible expansion of the money supply has leaked into world economies resulting in price inflation. QE has created asset bubbles in the property market. This is why we continue to see rising prices in goods and services. Unfortunately our incomes do not rise in tandem.


货币供应量的这种令人难以置信的扩张已经渗透到世界经济中,导致价格上涨。量化宽松在房地产市场造成了资产泡沫。这就是为什么我们继续看到商品和服务价格上涨的原因。不幸的是,我们的收入并没有同步增长。


Precious metals preserve purchasing power over long periods of time. When measured against gold, the prices of commodities such as oil are relatively stable. It is a different story if denominated in a fiat currency like the US dollar.


贵金属可以长期保持购买力。与黄金相比,石油等大宗商品的价格相对稳定。如果以美元等法定货币计价,则情况则不同。


We are tempted to say that gold became more expensive over the years. The thing is you now need more units of fiat currency to buy the same amount of gold. The value of the fiat currency has depreciated significantly over time.


我们很容易地说,多年来黄金变得更加昂贵。问题是您现在需要更多的法定货币单位才能购买相同数量的黄金。法定货币的价值已随着时间大幅贬值。


Adjusted to inflation, the price of gold did not reach his previous peak in US dollars from 1980.


经过通货膨胀因素调整后,美元金价没有达到他自1980年以来的峰值。



Ultimately money printing (QE) will ruin the trust in US dollar and other paper currencies. Even more currency will chase the same amounts of goods and services thus lowering the value of the currency itself. When the people will become aware of that, they will get rid of their currency as fast as they can. The velocity of the currency will grow generating inflation and hyperinflation eventually when the trust in the currency is lost. Then you will want to own physical gold. To secure the value of your wealth on the long run.


最终,货币印刷(QE)将破坏对美元和其他纸币的信任。甚至更多的货币将追逐相同数量的商品和服务,从而降低了货币本身的价值。当人们意识到这一点时,他们将尽快摆脱货币。最终,当人们失去对货币的信任时,货币的速度将会增长,从而导致通货膨胀和恶性通货膨胀。然后,您将要拥有实物黄金。从长远来看,确保您的财富价值。


"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero." (Voltaire)


“纸币最终将返回其内在价值-零。” (伏尔泰)


Gold has no/less counterparty risk. One of the beauties of gold is that it has no counterparty risk. Except when someone touches it. This can happen in:


黄金没有/没有较少交易对手风险。 黄金的优点之一是它没有交易对手风险。 除了有人触碰时。 这可能发生在:


- Physical storage. If one stores the gold at home, the ‘counterparty’ one needs to be concerned about is burglars. The same applies in a bank deposit box or specialized gold custodian. Insurance might alleviate that concern, but keep in mind that the insurance company is also a counterparty risk. Some people might choose to not insure their gold opting for an increased level of discretion. And some might choose to take this small calculated risk anyway because the risk is just simply bigger anywhere else.


-物理存储。 如果有人在家中存放黄金,则需要考虑的“对手”就是防盗。 银行存款箱或专门的黄金托管人也是如此。保险可以减轻这种担忧,但请记住,保险公司也是交易对手的风险。有些人可能选择不为自己的黄金投保,而是选择一种更高级别的自由度。而且有些人可能还是选择承担这个小的计算过的风险,因为其他任何地方的风险只是更大。


- Allocated versus Unallocated. Financial institutions in the business of storing gold differentiate between holding gold on an allocated or unallocated basis. Allocated means it is segregated, held on behalf of the client; in the event of a default of the custodian, the gold still belongs to the beneficial owner. In contrast, unallocated gold, also referred to as paper gold, is merely a claim against the assets of the institution. Be sure to own segregated physical gold as an insurance that will go up in value at the peak of the crisis. Paper gold serves price speculation purposes only.


-已分配与未分配。从事黄金存储业务的金融机构在分配的黄金还是未分配的黄金之间进行区分。已分配意味着它是分离的,代表客户持有;在托管人违约的情况下,黄金仍属于受益所有人。相反,未分配的黄金,也称为纸黄金,仅是对机构资产的债权。 确保拥有隔离的实物黄金作为保险,以在危机高峰期升值。纸黄金仅用于价格投机目的。


Gold is the one and only money. As we explained earlier, central banks cannot print gold. Today all currencies in the world are fiat and can be printed out of thin air. Gold is a protection against the currency wars, devaluation and ultimately monetary crisis. The big reset of our monetary system is coming. No reserve currency last forever!


黄金是唯一的货币。正如我们之前所解释的,中央银行无法印制黄金。今天,世界上所有货币都是法定货币,可以凭空印刷。黄金是针对货币战争,贬值以及最终的货币危机的保护。 我们的货币体系将大复位。 没有储备货币会永远持续下去!



And if the Fed and the ECB do as they say like "doing whatever they can" to save the system, this will mean unlimited currency printing. Now we know how this ends up anyway. Weimar Republic, Argentina, Zimbabwe... you name it. Loss of confidence and hyperinflation!


而且,如果美联储和欧洲央行像他们所说的那样“尽其所能”来保存系统,这将意味着无限的货币印刷。现在我们知道了这会如何结束。魏玛共和国,阿根廷,津巴布韦...数不胜数的例子。 失去信心和恶性通货膨胀!


Gold is a liquid asset. It can easily be converted to cold cash in your pocket without losing substantial value in the conversion (unlike real estate). Owning the right products that are recognized in many parts of the world will allow you to sell your gold easily. You can use gold to store your wealth in a different jurisdiction than the one you lives in. 


黄金是一种流动资产。它可以轻松地转换为零用现金,而不会在转换中损失实质性的价值(与房地产不同)。拥有在世界许多地方公认的正确产品,将使您轻松出售黄金。 您可以使用黄金将财富存储在与居住地不同的管辖区中。


Gold can be used as collateral. For many decades, gold was the reserve currency in the global monetary system. When the gold standard was ended, gold’s role as money and collateral faded over time. However, since the Great Recession, gold is increasingly being used as collateral around the world. For example, the new capital requirements implemented by Basel III enhanced the role of gold as collateral. It should not be surprising, given its role as a monetary asset. Indeed, gold is a high-quality and liquid asset. Importantly, the gold market is highly liquid across time zones.


黄金可用作抵押品。几十年来,黄金一直是全球货币体系中的储备货币。黄金标准结束后,黄金作为货币和抵押品的作用随着时间的流逝逐渐消失。但是,自大萧条以来,黄金在世界范围内越来越多地用作抵押品。例如,巴塞尔协议三实施的新资本要求增强了黄金作为抵押品的作用。考虑到其作为货币资产的作用,这不足为奇。的确,黄金是一种高质量的流动资产。 重要的是,跨时区的黄金市场流动性很高。


In other words, contrary to common beliefs that gold is not a productive asset, it may be used as collateral, as well as being lent and borrowed. The cost of borrowing gold is the gold lease rate, while the interest rate on a U.S. dollar loan secured by gold as collateral is called the gold forward offered rate.


换句话说,与人们普遍认为黄金不是生产性资产相反,黄金可以用作抵押品,也可以被借出和借用。黄金借贷的成本是黄金租赁利率,而以黄金作为抵押的美元贷款的利率称为黄金远期提供利率。


Also, in 2011, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it will allow clients to use the metal as collateral in some transactions. For example, a hedge fund wanting to borrow money for a short period can put up gold as collateral and use the borrowings to invest elsewhere, betting on making a better return.


此外,摩根大通公司(J.P. Morgan Chase&Co.)在2011年表示,将允许客户在某些交易中使用这种金属作为抵押。例如,一家想在短期内借钱的对冲基金可以拿出黄金作为抵押品,并利用这些借贷投资到其他地方,以期获得更好的回报。


Another example is the use of gold as a collateral for securing P2P loans. To borrow, you need metals in storage as collateral. For example, the lender’s funds are secured at a 2:1 ratio by the borrower’s metals. So the borrower can use its metal to get up to 50% of its value in cash. The metal is stored within a fully controlled and owned vault and no middleman involved.


另一个例子是使用黄金作为抵押以获得P2P贷款。要借贷,您需要存储中的金属作为抵押。例如,借方的金属以2:1的比例担保贷方的资金。因此,借款人可以使用其金属最多获取其现金价值的50%。金属被存储在完全控制和拥有的金库中,并且没有中间人参与。


Now you can see more clearly why gold is an asset to own. Gold is the best insurance for your portfolio. It is a great diversification tool. It offers protection against economic, financial and monetary crisis. Gold is the foundation of any sound portfolio. Think of your investment strategy as a pyramid. The larger the base, the lower the risk.


现在,您可以更清楚地了解为什么黄金是值得拥有的资产。黄金是您投资组合的最佳保险。 这是一个很好的多元化工具。 它为抵御经济,金融和货币危机提供了保护。 黄金是任何良好投资组合的基础。 将您的投资策略视为金字塔。 基数越大,风险越低。


Gold is the ultimate insurance with an upside potential. And capital preservation mode must be activated NOW!


黄金是具有上涨潜力的终极保险。 并且必须立即激活资本保全模式!


Gold for Chinese nationals

黄金之于中国公民


Chinese nationals prefer owning real assets over paper assets and this is a smart move indeed. Long term, gold is the No. 1 real asset. It is liquid (easy to buy or sell, not like real estate), fungible (interchangeable, not like real estate), and holds value through a long period of time.


中国国民更喜欢拥有有形资产,而不是纸质资产,这确实是明智之举。长期来看,黄金是第一大真实资产。它具有流动性(易于买卖,不像房地产),可替代(可互换,不像房地产),并且可以长期保持价值。


If you are a Chinese national investing or living in the Netherlands, then you are most probably exposed to the euro. Then you have to hedge yourself against a monetary risk. And physical gold is a perfect shield against currency devaluation. Remember all currencies in the world are fiat today.


如果您是中国国民在荷兰投资或居住,那么您很可能会接触欧元。然后,您必须对冲自己以应对货币风险。实物黄金是抵御货币贬值的完美屏障。请记住,当今世界上所有货币都是法定货币。


Hedging is a technique used to reduce risk of adverse price movements in an asset. It is like taking an insurance policy. For example, gold is negatively correlated with stocks. Between 2008 and 2011, gold soared by 86% while the Dow Jones dropped 10%. So you buy gold to hedge against a decline in the price of stocks. 


套期保值是一种用于降低资产价格不利波动风险的技术。这就像采取保险政策。例如,黄金与股票负相关。在2008年至2011年之间,黄金飙升了86%,而道琼斯指数则下跌了10%。因此,您购买黄金来对冲股票价格的下跌。


Also you buy gold to hedge against currency devaluation caused by money printing as inflation reduces the purchasing power of each unit of currency.


此外,您购买黄金来对冲货币印刷导致的货币贬值,因为通货膨胀会降低每个货币单位的购买力。


The graphs below show how gold works as a hedge against currency devaluation by holding its purchasing power. 


下图显示了黄金如何通过保持其购买力来对冲货币贬值。


Here below you can see the price of beer in euro and in gold.


在下面,您可以看到啤酒以欧元和黄金结算的价格。



Below is the price of oil in gold and in different currencies. You can see that you need approximately the same amount of gold to buy oil but you need more paper currencies.


以下是石油通过黄金和其他货币结算的价格。您会看到购买石油所需的黄金量大致相同,但需要更多的纸币。



As a contractor, you can protect a part of your company's money with gold. Then enjoying a great level of protection and liquidity.


作为承包商,您可以用黄金保护公司资金的一部分。 然后享受极大的保护和流动性。


Chinese nationals prefer keeping their wealth out of China once investments have been made and gold is an excellent vehicle to do so. Gold keeps its value, is a liquid and movable asset and now in a fresh upleg of its long term bull market since last May.


一旦进行了投资,中国国民就更倾向于将财富留在中国之外,而黄金是实现这一目标的绝佳工具。黄金保持其价值,是一种流动性和可移动资产,自去年5月以来,其长期牛市处于新的上升期。


Due to capital controls in China, it is more difficult to invest in foreign real estate. So why not considering another real asset like gold that is not overvalued and more liquid.


由于中国的资本管制,投资外国房地产更加困难。那么,为什么不考虑另一种没有被高估且流动性更高的真实资产,如黄金。


Apart from regular investing, Chinese companies use the Netherlands as EU hub to set up holding companies for EU subsidiaries. Again these holding companies are exposed to the euro and its monetary risk. A wise move would be to use physical gold to protect a part of long term capital from currency devaluation and overtaxation/capture by the authorities.


除了定期投资外,中国公司还利用荷兰作为欧盟枢纽,为欧盟子公司设立控股公司。 这些控股公司再次面临欧元及其货币风险。明智的举动是使用实物黄金来保护部分长期资本免遭当局的货币贬值和超额征税/扣押。


If you have enough precious metals to be concerned about government seizure/confiscation or capital controls, you should consider jurisdictional diversification. Storing precious metals abroad makes it much harder for a desperate government to seize them.


如果您有足够的贵金属来担心政府的没收/充公或资本管制,则应考虑司法管辖区的多元化。将贵重金属存储在国外使绝望的政府更难没收它们。


The main reason why investors would consider storing precious metals internationally is risk mitigation.


投资者考虑在国际范围内存储贵金属的主要原因是降低风险。


And Switzerland is a sound choice as a storing location. Switzerland is the safest and most secure location to store gold. The alpine nation has a long history of democracy, and it is one of the most decentralized and free political systems in the world. The Swiss have a long history of neutrality. When WW1 and WW2 were ravaging Europe, investors from all over the world moved their assets to Switzerland to keep them safe from government confiscation. 


瑞士是存放黄金的明智选择。瑞士是最安全,最安全的黄金存放地。高山民族有着悠久的民主历史,它是世界上最分散和最自由的政治制度之一。瑞士人具有悠久的中立历史。 第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战席卷欧洲时,来自世界各地的投资者将其资产转移到瑞士,以保护其免受政府没收的侵害。


On top of democracy and political stability, the Swiss economy has a special relationship with gold. Switzerland refines around 70% of all the world’s gold, and precious metals are a vital industry the Swiss are incentivized to protect. This makes them less likely to levy punitive taxes on gold or even forbid the hoarding like the United States did in 1933.


除了民主和政治稳定之外,瑞士经济与黄金有着特殊的关系。瑞士提炼了全球约70%的黄金,贵金属是瑞士受激励保护的重要产业。这使得它们不太可能像美国在1933年那样对黄金征收惩罚性税或甚至禁止囤积黄金。


Chinese businesses, residents or expatriates can buy gold and store it in Switzerland. Your gold will be out of political reach. It might be wise indeed to not store your shiny metal within political reach (at least not all of it). Maybe you can keep a small portion at hand in case of emergency but if your stack becomes too large when accumulating, it is wise to consider storage in another jurisdiction to mitigate risks of confiscation and over-taxation by desperate governments. Especially if you are now a EU resident. Store out of the EU for EU citizens. Out of the US for US citizens. Out of China for Chinese citizens.


中国企业,居民或外籍人士可以购买黄金并将其存储在瑞士。您的金子将超出政治干预范围。确实不要将发光的金属存放在政治干预范围内(至少不是全部存放在其中)。也许在紧急情况下您可以保留一小部分在手,但是如果您的堆栈在累积时变得太大,则明智的做法是考虑将其存储在另一个司法管辖区中,以减轻拼死的政府没收和征税的风险。特别是如果您现在是欧盟居民。欧盟公民存放在欧盟之外。美国公民存放在美国之外。中国公民则存放在中国之外。


Even if banking secrecy has been shattered in recent years, Switzerland remains one of the best locations to store your physical gold.


即使近年来银行保密制度已经瓦解,瑞士仍然是存放实物黄金的最佳地点之一。


Better to buy and store overseas in the first place than having to transport your gold.


从一开始在国外购买和存储黄金比转移您的黄金好的多。


Conclusion

结论


Buy gold primarily as a safeguard for the future, and secondly as a profitable investment. If you believe the current economic difficulties will continue down the same road for some time to come, then the gold price is likely to remain high and continue to rise. Even if the price does not matter much eventually, value does!


购买黄金主要是为了保障未来,其次才是盈利。如果您认为当前的经济困难将持续一段时间,那么金价可能会保持高位并继续上涨。即使最终价格无关紧要,价值不一样!


Do not let the bumpy ride scare you off your golden socks! The most important thing to understand is the necessity to own physical gold as the last asset standing. And to store it out of political reach.


不要让颠簸的旅程吓到您的金袜子!要了解的最重要的事情是必须拥有实物黄金作为最后的资产,并将其存储在政治干预范围之外。


Switzerland is the safest and most secure way to store precious metals because of the country’s democratic political system, long history of neutrality, and economic relationship with precious metals. 


由于瑞士的民主政治制度,悠久的中立历史以及与贵金属的经济关系,瑞士是最安全的贵金属储存方式。


The time to develop your physical gold strategy is NOW! 


现在制定您的实物黄金策略的时间到了!